Recent developments indicate that the Russian military is concentrating its forces near the Kharkiv region, potentially preparing for a significant offensive aimed at seizing the regional capital and the city of Sumy. This follows warnings issued by Russian negotiators in Istanbul regarding the possible occupation of two more Ukrainian territories. Military analyst Michael Clarke suggests that the Russian Armed Forces have a "four-month window" this year to make a breakthrough before the weather deteriorates and remaining Soviet-era armored vehicles are depleted.
According to reports, around 50,000 troops are gathering near Kharkiv, following the near-total withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. Andrei Pomagaybus, the head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 13th Operational Brigade, claims that Russia is moving personnel to the front line and attempting to execute some assaults, albeit unsuccessfully. He emphasized a clear preparation for active offensive operations on the part of the adversary.
Clarke believes that the assembled forces, likely to include elite airborne units, may attempt to capture Kharkiv and Sumy or regain territories previously liberated by Kyiv in the fall of 2022. However, he noted that Russian forces are largely exhausted due to sustained attacks across extensive sections of the front, part of the "attrition warfare" strategy.
Jack Watling, a military expert from the British Institute for Defence Studies (RUSI), predicts that Russia will likely initiate a "soft launch" of its summer campaign, steadily increasing the frequency and scale of attacks instead of executing rapid maneuvers with large mechanized units. Signs of this approach are reportedly already visible.
Watling concurs with Clarke’s assessment that Russia’s military reserves are running low. He indicated that Soviet-era reserves of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery assets, and other weapons could be entirely depleted by mid-autumn.
In contrast, the OSINT project DeepState pointed out that reports about a looming Russian offensive on Kharkiv have been exaggerated. Analysts note ongoing "constant pressure and probing" attempts against Ukrainian defenses, which is routine during conflict. Although troop numbers are increasing, it is primarily as reinforcements to offset heavy casualties. Additionally, Russian forces are boosting drone operations across various sections of the front.
It appears that the Kremlin is considering exchanging newly captured Ukrainian cities for territories such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which have been constitutionally incorporated into Russia.
